The MLB Draft occurred just last week, but already, three first-round picks have signed with the teams who picked them.  The disadvantage of signing early is that you forfeit seeing what other players are signing for.  There is a possibility that you sign for less than you could make if you hold out until the deadline.  The positive is that you show goodwill to your signing team and get started within the organization as soon as possible.  Many teams will start you on a higher level, and you will be well on your way up the system while your colleagues are holding out for more money.

Normally, the signing deadline for drafted players is August 15th.  Because August 15th falls on a Saturday this year, the MLB has pushed the deadline  back to August 17th.  Expect a lot of first rounders to sign within minutes of the deadline.  But then there are those who have already signed, two months earlier than they had to.  Tony Sanchez is currently playing with the West Virginia Power of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization (where Dynasty has 2 clients: Kyle McPherson and Ryan Kelly), Drew Storen is with the Hagerstown Suns of the Washington Nationals organization, and Eric Arnett will be sent to Brewers Rookie Ball (Helena).

To be able to start playing in Class A or Rookie Ball now, is definitely a plus.  What about the signing bonuses?

• Tony Sanchez (#4 overall) – $2.5 million. College Junior – Catcher.
• Drew Storen (#10 overall) – $1.6 million. Draft-eligible College Sophomore – RHP.
• Eric Arnett (#26 overall) – $1.2 million. College Junior – RHP.

Last year, the #4 overall pick (Brian Matusz, College Junior – LHP) signed for $3.2 million, higher than Tony Sanchez’s bonus.  Left-handed pitchers are very valuable, but so is the skilled position of Catcher.  Additionally, the #5 overall pick was a College Junior Catcher named Buster Posey.  Drafted one slot later than Sanchez, Posey received the largest bonus of the draft – $6.2 million.  The Pirates spent $6 million on their 1st round pick last year (Pedro Alvarez), so Sanchez really could have probably made more if he held out a little longer.  But again, the positives of signing early..

Last year’s #10 overall pick (Jason Castro) was a College Junior Catcher from the same university as this year’s #10 overall pick – Stanford University.  Castro also signed for more money than this year’s #10 pick.  He received a bonus of $2.07 million.  Again, a highly skilled Catcher is very valuable, but Storen was seen as someone who could help out the Nats immediately.  Storen was also probably drafted in this position because of his signability.  Presumably, the Nationals knew that he would be a quick sign, which is why he was taken at #10 overall.

The #26 overall pick last year was Daniel Schlereth, a College Junior LHP from the University of Arizona.  As previously stated, LHPs are often valued higher than RHPs.  Schlereth received only a little more of a bonus ($1.33 million) than Arnett.

All three first round players that signed, did so below slot value.  I believe that Storen and Sanchez have legitimate reasons for doing so.  But maybe Arnett should have taken a little bit more time before agreeing to the terms of his deal.  What are your thoughts?

Yesterday, the situation took a turn when reports noted that Pedro Alvarez and camp Boras agreed to a 4-year, major league contract with a $6.355 million bonus (ESPN prefers to round up to $6.4 million).  Surprised that this bonus is for more than Posey’s?  Does it all boil down to an ego issue?  Maybe, but at least Alvarez and Hosmer may be able to take the field again soon.  A source cited in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes that this new deal will put an end to the pending MLBPA grievance against the MLB.

I think John Manuel of BaseballAmerica.com says in the first line of his piece what we are all thinking right now: So the Aug. 15 signing deadline really isn’t a deadline after all.

Collective bargaining agreements are as worthless as the paper they are printed on if they are not adhered to by both negotiating parties. If Pedro Alvarez is given 45 minutes, then next year’s 2nd pick will try to get 90 minutes. Where does it end?

Before I expand on my two-sentences that were featured in Foley’s blog, lets get into some background behind the whole Alvarez situation.  Pedro Alvarez was selected #2 overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates.  A day before the signing deadline, Zak Kurtz, pointed out that Boras was looking for $7 million from the Pirates and that the club would probably not pay that kind of money.  The deadline came, and Pirates fans were surprised that the organization paid big money on some players, including Robbie Grossman in the sixth round ($1 million) and Pedro Alvarez, the #2 overall pick ($6 million).  But $6 million is a whole $1 million short of the $7 million demanded.  Did the deal work itself out legitimately?

Scott Boras says no and he has the MLBPA behind him.  The claim is that Alvarez refused to sign a deal with the Pirates until forty-five minutes after the signing deadline, at which time Alvarez signed for a $6 million bonus.  Additionally, rumor has it that Alvarez signed late because Boras was busy negotiating a deal for another client, Eric Hosmer, right before the deadline.  Alvarez is now on the restricted list.

A few things:

• Is anyone surprised that Scott Boras is involved in a media-hyped baseball controversy?
• Why would Boras and Alvarez sign a deal at all if they were going to be the party to go to the MLBPA to file a grievance against Major League Baseball?
• If Boras knew that the Pirates were violating MLB rules by extending the deadline, was he not an accomplice to the act by being a party of the action?  If he had knowledge of the violation, did he have a duty to say something at the time of the breach?
• If it is true that Boras was so busy negotiating Eric Hosmer’s deal that he could not focus on Pedro Alvarez getting signed on time, will this deter future first-rounders from going with Boras because they believe he already has his hands full with enough clients on his plate?

Now, on to the quote that I offered Foley for his piece.  I truly do believe that if CBAs (Collective Bargaining Agreements) are to be made in any industry, they must be followed by both parties to the agreement.  While I am currently enrolled in Labor Law, and will learn much more about CBAs in a later class session, I understand that they embody formal rules between a union and owners.  If either side breaches the agreement, there must be some sort of penalty.  In this case, I am not sold that the Pirates are entirely at fault.  Scott Boras is an MLBPA licensed agent, therefore, he represents the union in all of his actions.  Again, if he had knowledge at the time that he and the Pirates were negotiating beyond the deadline, then he and the union may be at fault as well.

In the end, I would hope to make this issue a clean wash and have all parties learn some valuable lessons.  It is great when agents/advisors do all that they can for their clients to gain an edge, as long as it is done within the confines of the rules.  This situation is way too shady.  If you intentionally break the deadline and sign a $6 million deal, do not cry foul afterward because you believe your client was undervalued, and then bring up a rules violation to the MLBPA.

Will the Pirates ever draft another Boras client?  While potential Boras clients be turned off by the fact that at least one team probably won’t be looking at acquiring them?

Number-one overall pick, Tim Beckham, received a $6.15 million signing bonus.  Word is that Beckham’s bonus will be trumped by Buster Posey, who may get a whopping $7.5 million.  Posey was the fifth player taken in the draft (by the San Francisco Giants).  The aforementioned Pedro Alvarez (Boras), Eric Hosmer (Boras), and Brian Matusz were all taken earlier than Posey and remain unsigned at the moment.  After Posey, there are six players who will probably not be signed until the final minutes before the deadline (if signed at all).  They are Yonder Alonso, Aaron Crow, Justin Smoak, Josh Fields (Boras), Allan Dykstra (Boras), and Gerrit Cole (Boras).  I do not know what is more remarkable: the fact that Boras has five players in the first round or that five of the ten players still holding out in the first-round are Boras clients.

Out of all of the first-round players yet to sign, only one seems to be for a reason other than the belief that he feels he deserves higher than slot figures.  Allan Dykstra has medical issues, which has delayed progress between the Padres and Boras Corp in signing the former Wake Forest first baseman.

As of writing this post, here are the bonus babies (highest signing bonuses) in the first ten rounds:

• 1st round (pick 1) – Tim Beckham – $6.15 million (Rays)
• Supplemental 1st (pick 1) – Shooter Hunt – $1.08 million (Twins)
• 2nd round (pick 9) – Destin Hood – $1.1 million (Nationals)
• 3rd round TIE (pick 5) – Roger Kieschnick – $525k (Giants) and (pick 10) – Danny Espinosa (Nationals)
• Supplemental 3rd (pick 1) – Ross Seaton – $700k (Astros)
• 4th round TIE (pick 1) – Ty Morrison – $500k (Rays) and (pick 19) – Matt Cerda (Cubs)
• 5th round (pick 9) – Adrian Nieto – $376k (Nationals)
• 6th round (pick 28) – Brett Marshall – $800k (Yankees)
• 7th round (pick 29) – Tim Fedroff – $725k (Indians)
• 8th round (pick 4) – Bobby Bundy – $600k (Orioles)
• 9th round (pick 15) – Steven Caseres – $250k (Dodgers)
• 10th round (pick 12) – Rashun Dixon – $600k (Athletics)

For a team with a small payroll, the Nationals seem to be spending quite a bit of money on their early draft picks.  Other notes:

• Out of 16 Supplemental 1st round picks, only one remains unsigned: Jeremy Bleich (Yankees)
• Only one player in the entire 3rd round has yet to sign: Chase Davidson (Astros)
• Every single player selected in the 8th round has signed a deal with the club that drafted him.
• The 10th round sticks out, containing ten players that have not yet signed.

For a great breakdown of the reasoning behind why certain players remain unsigned, check out this article published by BaseballAmerica.  Friday shall be an interesting day, indeed.

Alvarez is compared to Manny Ramirez and could certainly be worth that much over time. Other equivalent draft picks such as 2008 1st overall pick Tim Beckham, signed with Tampa Bay for a $6.15 million signing bonus.  The Pirates are not likely to go much higher than that.

After trading Jason Bay, Damaso Marte, Xavier Nady and others, it looks like the past ten years have been rebuilding years for the Pirates.  They have consistently been shedding good players and clearing salary cap space.  Pittsburgh has a young lineup, especially after gaining Neil Walker, and Adam LaRoche. They claim to be building for the future.  Wouldn’t signing the second pick of the draft, Alvarez, be a great way to build for the future?  Alvarez has made all the right decisions and is a first class talent.  If the Pirates let this guy slip through their fingers, I don’t know who they will ever spend money on.

I was recently asked for my take on whether a kid should sign a professional baseball contract out of high school or attend college first. Let me preface that there is no right or wrong answer to this question. Each player is unique and if they are fortunate enough to have this decision to make someday, they will be playing baseball regardless of choice, which is the root of the decision.

Imagine you are one of the select few high school senior baseball players in the country, you are 18 years old, and you have the dream of playing major league baseball someday. Now imagine just being a typical teenager who always felt education continues past high school and into college. It has been said that 98% of learning on a college campus happens outside the classroom. Campus life, campus community, meeting new people, making lifelong friends, working towards a degree, maturing as a person and dealing in a new social atmosphere. Growing up within the overall college experience as a young man. You get to do this only once at this stage of life. This has value.

Now you can add in the student-athlete label. You will be part of a team that plays for a common goal. You will continue to develop as a player, a teammate, a friend. You will represent your institution, your coaches, teammates, and student body. You will be a part of the fabric of your chosen institution. This has value.

You will transition into a more independent person while having multiple support systems including your coaches, academic advisors and fellow teammates. During these 3-4 years of personal growth and development, the goal of professional baseball will still be there in most cases. The idea of being away from home will become less an issue. Time management skills will be enhanced, routines will become, “routine”, and you will be at, or near a complete college education. And you play baseball too. This has value.

Keep in mind that there are always kids who have no desire to attend college. For this article, let’s exclude them simply because they just want to play baseball only, whether they were the high school class valedictorian or barely skated by.

I chose to interview some players and/or parents of minor league rookie ball and A ball levels. One common thing they all said was that baseball is a business, and you learn that fast. Several also mentioned difficulties in filling the idle time each day when baseball wasn’t to be played or practiced. Does a rookie find a job, take extra cuts at the field, sit around watching daytime TV, take online classes? Experts in baseball, which I am not, have stated that the 8 hours each day a professional baseball player is not sleeping or playing baseball can be the difference in progressing versus regressing. College students fill that time being college students. This has value.

So what are some of the factors a high school senior, committed to a college baseball program needs to evaluate if he gets drafted and has to make a choice?

The economic term “opportunity cost” is basically the benefit foregone by making one decision over another. I am one who believes that this is the core value in the entire equation. Others may believe the theory that “it just feels right” is another basis. Let’s talk about value, then investment.

• What is the value assigned to spending 3-4 years in a college social atmosphere starting at age 18?
• What is the value of being a contributor on a college baseball team?
• What is the value of college baseball instruction?
• What is the value of a college degree? After 3 years of college?

It is difficult to assign dollars to these equations simply because each case is very unique. Some student-athletes use college mostly for its intended purpose, to get more education and a degree. Others use the college venue for baseball only to attempt to get drafted, or enhance their draft value in future years. Most juggle both aspects tremendously. These are the players proponents of the pro game say are being surpassed by their peers by spending time in college versus getting minor league instruction right after high school. They may be right in some cases, and wrong in some cases, but nobody has the correct answer.

I spoke with a few advisor/agents. If a student who holds a degree can make a $50,000 starting salary after graduation, then start with 4 years of minor league time spent instead of getting that degree, or $200,000. From there you can add the CSP(College Scholarship Plan) of approximately $20,000 per year, or another $80,000. In hard dollars the initial bonus should at least be $280,000, which according to slot recommendations start in the 3^rd/4^th rounds of the draft. The hard part, especially in a quasi-negotiation is the value of the opportunity cost mentioned. This is the amount that affects signability or the fact a kid is even drafted at all. Some blue-chip and 2^nd tier high school stars make it very clear what their respective price tags are, and these are the ones who fall down the draft boards, some even fall off of them. Were these kids wrong in drawing a line in the sand? Nobody has the correct answer.

Every year, kids opt for Rookie ball at a value to the club who selects them. They may sign for what they believe is a nice bonus, and the published amount is $25,000 as an example. This 18 year old may struggle the first summer, then be assigned another season of rookie ball, and after that 2^nd season, still struggling along, turns 20 years old and trying very hard to get advanced to the A club. His counterpart in college has completed 2 seasons of baseball and will normally be entering his Junior year and will be draft eligible again. Neither kid made a right or wrong decision. They each made their own decision. What may come next is a moment in time where each individual gets a better feel about their decisions.

If we follow this example further, assume for illustration that the college player who decided to forgo being selected or wasn’t drafted at all has had a solid 2 seasons in college baseball, performed well in summer ball, and has a super solid junior baseball season. He gets drafted and the bonus is within the value the family believes is a fair investment in the player. That player has 3 years of college under his belt, 3 years of college and summer baseball under his belt, and a very good chance he will bypass Rookie league immediately and be assigned to an A ball club. The kid who took the $25,000 may start his 3^rd pro season at the same level, has minimal money left, and no progress towards a college education.

I read a recent article about the makeup of the minor leagues. The writer stated that about 50% of the estimated 6000 players in MILB are foreign born. I bring this up to make a point: The competition is fierce, and global. The game has evolved into an international one where MLB will throw anything and everything against a wall to see what sticks. They invest in player development internationally. Their INVESTMENT in you, the player, has much to do in the college versus pro decision. The higher the initial bonus, the more chances they will give you to fail.

This leads back to value each player assigns to their respective case. Getting life changing money as a 1^st or 2^nd rounder makes the decision pretty easy for those fortunate enough to have had their talents displayed and exposed early on to the decision makers in professional baseball. It’s the next tier of high school draft eligible players who may have the tougher decision. There will always be high school players drafted who choose college regardless of the bonus amount, and there will always be players who choose pro over college regardless of the bonus amount. Nobody is right or wrong.

So why is the MLB 1^st year player draft nearly 50 rounds long for most teams? Do you think teams adding 50 new players from the United States means they have released 50 players from their respective systems? Who were these talented players, and what was their signing bonus? Did they ever attend college first? Are they ready for “the real world of work”? It is said 5% of drafted players play at least one MLB game.

So is there a right answer to college versus pro? Yes, for each individual, and no, when applying the question to each draft eligible high school player as a group. It has nothing to do with whether each player wants to play pro baseball but more to do with when they want to take a shot at it.

Getting drafted out of high school is no guarantee you will be re-drafted out of college, just as much as not getting drafted out of high school means you never will be drafted out of college. The college baseball experience will be the main playing field which includes the summer wood bat leagues. They are a main feeder system to the pros. One thing is for sure: Players having this decision are very talented and will have a place to show their stuff, be it on a campus or a minor league town.

High School draft prospects need to sit down with their parents and determine what their value is. When they fill out MLB questionnaires, they will be asked about what round they feel they belong in, and how much bonus they would sign for in some cases. These are tough questions and I have heard different views from “experts”, parents, coaches, scouts, agents/advisors, and everyone in between. Just the fact that the views differ corroborates that there is no right or wrong answer.

Some say if you choose a round to be selected in, you are drawing a line and feel you may be risking being selected at all. If you choose a dollar figure, same thing. But if it is an honest answer and you believe it 100%, then you are risking nothing. If they really want you at that amount of investment, then you can conclude the feeling is mutual and the draft result will prove or disprove it.

Some advise to say nothing, or use the term “market value”. So who is the expert in assigning this market value? The player needs to determine his own market value, then choose to disclose it or keep it under family wraps. Players may be told that “if we selected you in the xth round, would you sign?” In my opinion, that is a tough question to ask a teenager and his family, unless x equals 1^st or 2^nd.  My best advice which comes from research, being a fan of baseball, and a parent with a player in the process is to learn from history.

The internet allows us all the ability to simply read about players and their travels, look at draft history and results, as well as read about the process of getting to pro baseball. Just perform a few “where are they now” searches and you can educate yourself pretty well in a general fashion. A good start is to research Pedro Alvarez (pictured left). He is a 1^st class talent and according to many, a 1^st class kid. Alvarez turned down a nice bonus out of high school, and pretty soon his decision made at that time will turn out to be a great one. Another place to get some recent history is to review some of the players who were named to several of the 2008 Division 1 freshman All-American teams. Several of those players drafted opted for college over starting pro ball, and several went undrafted because of signability. They keep playing the game, and play it at a high level, in college.

Evaluate your situation. Determine your worth. Determine your goals. Only a few high school players each year become instant millionaires. One of the greatest websites is the HSBBW. They recently had their annual thread on this topic. Follow the link and read about true experiences. Experience is the best teacher. What you will conclude is this: It is a very individual decision. There is no cookbook answer. Each of the two choices has its positives and negatives aspects. One hedges the bet with education while the other hedges it with money.

While you are watching the draft, you may be interested in following where Scott Boras clients get picked. By the way, I am still waiting for a call back from Boras Corp concerning this story. Here is part of the list of Boras Corp players that you can check off as they get picked in a new game that the entire family can enjoy.:

Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole, Allan Dykstra, Jordan Danks, Jon Gaston, Alex Meyer, Brett Mooneyham, Nick Maronde, Jeremy Bleich, and some guy named Eric Hosmer, who could be the first player taken overall. My hometown newspaper put out a nice column on Hosmer’s development.

Anyway, I will be ridiculously busy from now until a couple of days after the draft, but I will do my best to check in to the site and update it as much as possible. Enjoy the draft.